Australian Inflation Rises, AUD Seeks New Direction
The Australian dollar (AUD) moved slightly and held onto its weakness on Tuesday, as market participants opted for caution amid rising geopolitical tensions. The market also held back as it awaited new direction from a combination of factors from China, the US, and Australian central bank policy.
One of the main triggers came from China. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to hold the Loan Prime Rate (LPR): the 1-year tenor remained at 3.00% and the 5-year tenor at 3.50%. This decision kept the AUD relatively quiet, as Australia is highly sensitive to the economic conditions of China, its main trading partner.
Meanwhile, the US dollar began to lose steam due to growing uncertainty surrounding the US-Greenland issue. US President Donald Trump announced he would impose tariffs on eight European countries that oppose his Greenland plan. The European Union is also preparing to hold off on such action while preparing retaliatory options if the tariffs actually go ahead—a situation that typically depresses risk sentiment and makes the market volatile.
Domestically, the AUD received a cushion from inflation data. Australia's TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose to 3.5% (yoy) in December from 3.2% previously. Monthly inflation jumped to 1.0% (mom)—the fastest pace since December 2023—after only 0.3% in the previous two months.
This rise in price pressures could reinforce speculation that the RBA will remain tight and cautious in its monetary policy stance. The IMF also warned the RBA not to rush into easing, as inflation has long been above its 2%–3% target, even though the CPI fell faster than expected in November. The market is now waiting to see whether the combination of inflationary pressures and global risks is strong enough to lift the AUD, or whether it will keep its movement subdued. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
