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Source: Newasmaker.id
Brent crude oil prices came under pressure during trading on Monday (November 2, 2026), drifting toward the US$106-per-barrel mark following a sharp rally throughout October. This decline was driven by growing optimism for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has eased concerns regarding potential disruptions to global energy supplies. A shift in geopolitical sentiment prompted market participants to reduce the "war risk premium"—a factor that had previously pushed oil prices to their highest levels in six months.
Market optimism rose following reports that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to allow more time for diplomatic efforts before considering further military action against Iran. Meanwhile, discussions involving Iran and Qatari mediators are ongoing, seeking a path out of the protracted conflict in the Middle East. These developments have fostered hope that the risk of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may diminish. Nevertheless, the absence of a concrete agreement means that uncertainty regarding energy supplies continues to loom over the market.
From a fundamental perspective, the decision by the OPEC+ group of oil producers to maintain their production targets for December has also drawn investor attention. This policy suggests that major producers remain cautious in the face of ongoing uncertainty regarding global supply and demand. On the other hand, a decline in oil prices could have a positive impact on the global inflation outlook, as energy costs represent a significant component of production and transportation activities. Should this downward trend persist, price pressures on goods and services could ease, potentially providing central banks with room to re-evaluate their tight interest-rate policies.
As the first week of November begins, the trajectory of oil prices is expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East conflict—particularly in the lead-up to the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Investors remain wary of the possibility that military tensions could escalate once again should diplomatic channels reach a stalemate. If negotiations show progress, Brent prices could see a continued correction as concerns over supply disruptions ease. Conversely, the threat of new attacks or the disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could once again trigger a sharp rise in energy prices. (CP)