News Maker 23

Global oil prices fell by more than 3% during trading on Monday (November 2) as Iranian and Qatari officials continued talks for the third consecutive day, aiming to reach an agreement regarding the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Brent crude dropped 3.2% to US$109.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) weakened by 3.3% to US$100.69 per barrel.

This decline follows Brent’s close in October at its highest level in six months. Hopes for diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any major military escalation over the weekend, prompted profit-taking and reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that discussions with Qatari mediators are ongoing and showing progress. Tehran indicated that it remains open to diplomatic channels, while simultaneously affirming its readiness to defend itself should the conflict intensify.

The market remains cautious, as the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday could serve as the next critical turning point. There are lingering concerns that rhetoric or military actions against Iran could escalate following the elections—a scenario that could push Brent prices back toward recent highs if the risk of supply disruptions grows.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia reportedly increased its crude oil exports in October compared to September, despite threats to some of its energy infrastructure from the Houthi group. Meanwhile, attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz remain a significant risk to energy distribution routes and global shipping costs.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ also decided to maintain its production targets for December, confirming that there will be no changes to supply policy in the near term. Moving forward, the market will be watching closely to see whether easing tensions will continue to compress the geopolitical risk premium, or if that premium will surge once again should diplomatic efforts fail to yield an agreement.