Oil Heads for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain as Hormuz Tanker Attack Raises Supply Concerns

Global oil prices climbed on Friday (October 30, 2026), putting them on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain as concerns intensified over a potential escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran following the US midterm elections. An attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz further heightened fears of disruptions to global energy supplies, highlighting the strategic importance of one of the world's most critical oil transportation routes.

December Brent crude futures rose $2.74, or 2.4%, to $117.62 per barrel as of 10:45 GMT, while the more actively traded January contract gained $2.78 to $113.58 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced $2.18, or 2.1%, to $104.18 per barrel. For October, Brent was heading toward a monthly increase of nearly 14%, while WTI was on course to gain approximately 15%, reflecting persistent concerns about supply disruptions amid geopolitical tensions.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that oil market participants were becoming increasingly cautious ahead of the US midterm elections. Some investors and analysts anticipate that Washington could resume military operations against Iran after the elections, potentially intensifying instability across the Middle East. The uncertainty has encouraged traders to factor a higher geopolitical risk premium into oil prices, particularly as concerns grow over possible disruptions to production and transportation in the region.

Market anxiety increased further after the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that an oil tanker traveling through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by explosive devices attached by a small boat on Friday. The identity of those responsible for the attack was not immediately established. The incident renewed concerns about the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor connecting major Gulf oil producers with international energy markets. Any prolonged disruption to shipping activity in the area could significantly affect global crude oil and fuel supplies.

Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy Research at MST Marquee, emphasized that continued military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with uncertainty surrounding a viable diplomatic solution, has been keeping oil prices elevated. Investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility of further conflict escalation in the coming weeks. These developments have reinforced geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, although the extent of any actual supply disruption will depend on how regional security conditions evolve.

Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations, maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, and prospects for diplomatic negotiations. Any escalation that threatens energy transportation routes could provide additional upward momentum for crude prices as markets anticipate tighter global supplies. Conversely, easing tensions and improved shipping security could reduce geopolitical risk premiums and trigger a price correction. With October drawing to a close, investors will closely monitor developments in the Middle East for indications of the next major move in global oil markets.(mrv)

Source : Newsmaker.id