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Gold
Source: Newsmaker.id
Gold prices dipped to around US$3,965 per troy ounce—the lowest level since July 17—before staging a modest recovery on Friday (October 30). A weakening US dollar and declining Treasury yields provided support for gold, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns over high AI-related spending and the earnings outlook for technology companies.
The US dollar also weakened for the third consecutive day, following renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. US Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent a letter to Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei proposing the resumption of negotiations, while Qatar has put forward a new draft agreement involving Iran, the US, and Israel.
Nevertheless, geopolitical risks have not fully subsided. Tensions between the Houthi group and Saudi Arabia persist, while the threat of further US and Israeli strikes—potentially following the US midterm elections—continues to loom. Furthermore, Iran’s claims regarding four oil tankers struck by mines in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions.
From a fundamental perspective, US economic data presents a challenge for gold. US GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in September, with the core PCE reaching 3.1%. This combination of robust growth and persistent inflation has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.
Newsmaker Analysis: While a weaker dollar and lower yields offer room for a rebound, the underlying fundamentals are not yet strong enough to confirm that a price floor has been established. As long as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike remain high, any gains in XAU/USD may still be met with selling pressure. (srh)
Source: Newsmaker.id