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Source: Newsmaker.id
The Iran-aligned Houthi group has seized the Yemeni port city of Mocha and is advancing toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. This development raises concerns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt not only the Strait of Hormuz but also energy access via the Red Sea.
Bab al-Mandeb serves as the southern gateway to the Red Sea and a primary route for oil and fuel shipments from the Gulf region to Europe via the Suez Canal. Expanded Houthi control over coastal areas could enhance the group's ability to pressure maritime traffic in the region.
The risk is compounded by the fact that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. Tracking data shows only seven vessels transited Hormuz on Wednesday—down from 12 the previous day and below the 10-day average of 14 vessels—indicating that this key Asia-Europe energy corridor is far from normal operations.
Simultaneous pressure on both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb could create significant obstacles for Gulf oil producers attempting to supply European and Asian markets. These risks are helping to keep energy prices elevated, with Brent crude holding above US$100 per barrel.
The conflict in Yemen has also intensified following an escalation in fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces over the past few days. More than 20,000 people have reportedly been displaced by clashes in the last two weeks, raising the risk of the Yemeni conflict expanding in scale.
Newsmaker Analysis: Simultaneous threats to these two chokepoints pose a serious risk to global energy markets. If the Houthis manage to increase their control or launch attacks at Bab al-Mandeb while disruptions at Hormuz persist, the geopolitical premium on oil prices could remain high or even rise further. Conversely, the market's ability to utilize alternative routes and adapt supply chains remains a factor that could prevent more extreme price spikes. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id