Gold at a Critical Juncture: The US$4,000 Level Holds the Key!

Global gold prices remained under pressure during trading on Friday (October 30, 2026), as the week—and the month of October—drew to a close. Spot gold (XAU/USD) hovered around US$4,000 per troy ounce, having traded as low as US$3,996.20 during the Asian session. Throughout the week, gold’s movement has been volatile; while there were attempts at a recovery, none were strong enough to establish a sustained upward trend. The precious metal is also on track for a decline of more than 3% for the month of October, marking a potential second consecutive monthly loss.

From a fundamental perspective, the primary pressure stems from a US monetary policy that remains relatively hawkish. At its meeting on October 28, the Federal Reserve (The Fed) held interest rates in the 3.75%–4.00% range—a decision that failed to provide any meaningful support for gold. In fact, two FOMC members advocated for a 25-basis-point rate hike. This suggests that concerns regarding inflation remain significant, keeping the possibility of a December rate hike firmly on investors' radar. For an asset like gold, which yields no interest, the prospect of high interest rates serves as a major obstacle to any further gains.

Downward pressure on gold intensified following the release of US economic data on Thursday (October 29), which showed persistent inflation alongside robust economic growth. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September rose 0.5% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation stood at 3.1%, and third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%. This combination of a resilient economy and unabated price pressures provides the Federal Reserve with the latitude to maintain its restrictive policy stance. Consequently, the US dollar and bond yields are likely to remain supported, which limits the appeal of gold.

Beyond economic factors, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also influenced gold’s movement throughout the week. The prospect of potential new US military strikes against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections has reignited concerns regarding disruptions to global energy supplies. High oil prices risk fueling inflation by increasing transportation and production costs. Under normal circumstances, geopolitical uncertainty might boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset; however, the current situation presents a more complex dynamic, as rising oil prices also reinforce expectations for higher interest rates. A sell-off in global technology stocks has further intensified pressure, with some investors liquidating gold holdings to meet liquidity needs.

From a technical perspective, the US$4,000 level serves as a critical psychological threshold, as the price repeatedly hovered around this area throughout the week. As long as gold can hold above US$4,000, the possibility of a recovery toward the US$4,030–US$4,050 resistance zone remains. Should buying pressure strengthen and the price consistently break through US$4,050, the recovery could potentially extend toward US$4,100. Conversely, if gold fails to maintain the US$4,000 level, market focus will shift toward support levels at US$3,970 and US$3,940. A deeper decline could open the door to a test of the US$3,886 area. These levels should be viewed as technical reference points requiring confirmation through actual price action, rather than as definitive trading targets.

Overall, our outlook for gold remains neutral-to-bearish in the short term, though the possibility of a rebound has not been entirely ruled out. The Friday market close will be significant in assessing gold’s ability to hold the US$4,000 level after facing fundamental headwinds throughout the week. If the price manages to close above that area and the US dollar begins to weaken, the chances of a recovery in early November could increase. However, if gold closes below US$4,000 again, selling pressure may persist into the following week. Investors should also keep a close watch on developments regarding the conflict involving Iran, the direction of US bond yields, and any shifts in expectations for interest rates in December. In our view, gold has not yet lost its potential for a rebound; however, a more robust recovery would require a shift in fundamental sentiment, rather than just the price’s ability to hold at a single psychological level.