Brent Holds at US$109—Here’s Why!

Brent crude oil prices have shown renewed strength, hovering around US$109 per barrel during Tuesday’s trading session (October 20, 2026), following a brief climb to a five-month high of US$110.70. This movement indicates that the oil market remains supported by concerns regarding global energy supplies. Although prices underwent a correction due to profit-taking, the elevated risk of conflict in the Middle East means that upward pressure has not entirely dissipated. Consequently, the US$109 level has become a critical threshold for determining the future direction of oil prices.

From a fundamental perspective, geopolitical tensions are the primary factor keeping Brent prices elevated. Attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and increased activity by the Houthi group in Yemen have raised concerns about the security of global oil distribution routes. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital energy shipping lanes, connecting oil producers in the Persian Gulf region to international markets. Should shipping disruptions escalate, freight and insurance costs could rise, potentially pushing oil prices higher—even if there is no further decline in actual production.

However, Brent’s upward momentum faces pressure from developments regarding Russian oil supplies. The United States has signaled a potential easing of certain restrictions on Russian energy trade, which could increase the availability of oil in the international market. Meanwhile, oil shipments from the Middle East continue, though they have yet to fully recover. The market is currently caught between two opposing forces: fears of supply disruptions due to conflict, and the prospect of increased supply. If oil distribution channels become more stable, Brent’s gains could be capped, even if geopolitical tensions persist.

From a technical standpoint, Brent is attempting to sustain its bullish momentum after approaching the US$110-per-barrel mark. The US$110–US$111 range serves as the immediate resistance level that must be breached to open the door for a potential rise toward US$113–US$115. Conversely, the US$107–US$108 area acts as an initial support level that needs to hold to prevent intensifying selling pressure. Should the price fall below US$107, the likelihood of a correction toward the US$105–US$103 range increases. These price projections are based on recent movements and still require confirmation through trading patterns and transaction volume.

Overall, the short-term outlook for Brent remains generally positive, provided the price stays above US$107 per barrel. The risk of energy supply disruptions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East remains a primary factor that could drive prices higher, while the potential for additional supply from Russia acts as a constraint on further gains. High oil prices also threaten to exacerbate global inflationary pressure, which could influence central bank interest rate policies and economic growth. For market participants, whether or not Brent manages to break through the US$110–US$111 range will be the deciding factor in whether the upward trend continues or if the price enters a corrective phase.