Gold Continues to Fall; Will US$4,100 Mark the Final Floor?

Newsmaker, Jakarta. Global gold prices remained under pressure during trading on Thursday, October 22, 2026—a downward trend that has persisted for the past several weeks. According to the daily XAU/USD chart, gold is trading at approximately US$4,110.46 per troy ounce, down 0.62%. Previously, the price had reached as high as US$4,650 at the end of August. This weakness signals a significant shift in market sentiment, as gold struggles to maintain any upward momentum. Selling pressure is evident, underscored by the asset's failure to establish a new, higher peak; any recovery attempts have been halted below previous resistance levels. These conditions indicate that sellers remain in control of gold’s price action in the short to medium term.

Fundamentally, gold prices have declined as market expectations for a hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve have risen, driven by the fact that inflation in the United States has yet to subside. Meanwhile, global oil prices have surged due to conflict in the Middle East—specifically concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—fueling fears of rising energy costs and global inflation. Consequently, market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its October 27–28 meeting, with a potential hike to follow in December. A Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect monetary tightening to continue through the end of the year. The prospect of higher interest rates has made interest-bearing instruments, such as U.S. government bonds, more attractive, thereby diminishing interest in gold, which yields no return.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart continues to show a strong downward trend. A pattern of "lower highs" and "lower lows" has emerged following gold’s inability to sustain a position above US$4,500. In recent sessions, the price has moved sideways within a range of US$4,100 to US$4,200, suggesting a consolidation phase following a period of sharp selling pressure. The Stochastic RSI indicator, with settings of 3, 3, 14, 14, shows the main line at 59.59 and the signal line at 66.19. The fact that the main line is below the signal line indicates that upward momentum has weakened, even though the indicator has not yet entered the oversold zone. This condition suggests that selling pressure may persist, and there is currently no strong bullish reversal signal on the daily chart.

Looking ahead, the psychological level of US$4,100 serves as a critical pivot point for the direction of gold prices. If selling pressure pushes the price down to consistently close below this level, the decline could extend toward the US$4,050–US$4,000 per troy ounce range. Conversely, if buyers can defend the US$4,100 area and drive the price above the US$4,150 resistance level, there remains a possibility for a recovery toward US$4,200. However, such an increase would not be sufficient to shift the overall trend unless gold establishes a sustained, higher price structure. Market participants should also monitor the movement of the US dollar and Treasury yields, as both continue to influence the appeal of gold.

According to Newsmaker, gold is currently undergoing more than just a temporary correction; it is facing a significant test regarding its medium-term trend. While geopolitical conflicts typically drive demand for safe-haven assets, in this instance, they are exerting pressure by fueling higher oil prices, inflation, and expectations of sustained high interest rates. A recovery remains possible, particularly if US inflation data cools or if the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish policy stance than anticipated. As long as the price remains below US$4,200, the bearish trend is expected to stay robust. The US$4,100 level is the key point to watch; a breach below this level could lead to further pressure, whereas holding above it could open the door for a technical rebound ahead of the FOMC decision.