Brent Heats Up as War Threat Persists!

Brent Heats Up as War Threat Persists! Brent crude oil prices strengthened again during trading on Friday (October 30, 2026), following a week of fluctuations. The Brent contract for December delivery hovered around US$113 per barrel, while the more actively traded January contract stood at approximately US$111 per barrel. Throughout October, oil prices climbed by about 12%, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns regarding the security of global energy supplies. As the week drew to a close, Brent demonstrated notable resilience, despite occasional corrections prompted by emerging hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

Fundamentally, a key factor supporting oil prices is the uncertainty surrounding the relationship between the United States and Iran. Reports suggesting that Washington might launch military operations against Tehran following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 have heightened investor concerns over potential disruptions to energy distribution. The situation has become increasingly sensitive following reports of an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil trade. Although oil shipments have begun to recover, persistent security risks lead market participants to continue factoring in the possibility of supply disruptions. This keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the price of Brent crude.

Conversely, diplomatic developments have exerted downward pressure on oil prices throughout the week. Meetings between Iran and representatives from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye—alongside diplomatic communications involving the United States—raised hopes that the conflict could be resolved through negotiation. This sentiment triggered profit-taking as Brent prices approached their highest levels in six months. Nevertheless, the failure to reach an agreement to halt the conflict has kept the decline in prices relatively limited. In our view, the oil market is currently reacting not only to actual supply conditions but also to shifting expectations regarding the prospects for peace versus the risks of military escalation. Beyond geopolitics, fundamental supply conditions are also providing support for Brent crude. Relatively low global oil inventories, tight supplies of refined products, and disruptions at several energy facilities have heightened concerns regarding short-term oil availability. A decline in U.S. crude oil inventories by approximately 1.9 million barrels for the week ending October 23 has further reinforced this sentiment. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the OPEC+ production policy decision in early November to see whether the producer group will maintain its current supply targets. If production does not increase significantly while geopolitical risks remain elevated, oil prices could find further support. Conversely, a recovery in energy distribution and an increase in supply could pave the way for a correction.

From a technical perspective, Brent’s price action continues to show a positive bias in the short term, though its upward momentum is beginning to encounter resistance. For the December contract—currently trading around US$112—the US$112–US$115 range serves as a critical zone for gauging buyer strength. Should the price consistently break above US$117, there is potential for a move toward US$120 per barrel. Conversely, a failure to sustain momentum in this area could trigger a correction toward US$110 or US$105. It should be noted that the December contract expires this Friday; therefore, price discrepancies between the December and January contracts could affect chart analysis. Consequently, any technical evaluation in early November should consistently use the same contract to ensure that price shifts resulting from the contract rollover are not misinterpreted as a market decline.

Overall, Newsmaker’s outlook for Brent remains neutral-to-bullish in the short term, primarily because geopolitical tensions and the risk of supply disruptions have yet to fully subside. However, the significant price gains seen throughout October leave oil vulnerable to profit-taking, particularly if diplomatic developments show tangible progress. As we head into early November, market attention will be focused on the U.S. midterm elections, potential shifts in Washington’s strategy toward Iran, and the OPEC+ production decision. For the global economy, sustained high Brent crude prices could amplify energy-related inflationary pressures and influence the direction of interest rate policies set by central banks, including the Federal Reserve. According to Newsmaker’s analysis, Brent prices may continue to climb; however, their future trajectory will largely depend on whether the threat of conflict escalates into actual supply disruptions or, conversely, subsides through a diplomatic agreement.