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Source: Newsmaker.id
The pound sterling weakened again against the US dollar during Tuesday's trading (September 15), pushing GBP/USD close to a five-week low around 1.3465. Sterling recorded a decline for the second consecutive day as mixed UK labor market data failed to offset dollar strength.
The UK unemployment rate, based on ILO standards, held steady at 4.9% for the three months to July—better than market forecasts, which had predicted a rise to 5%. However, the number of unemployment benefit claims rose by 27,800, far exceeding the expected increase of 8,300 and reversing the previous month's decline of 11,800.
Markets are now turning their attention to the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, unless UK inflation data on Wednesday shows a much higher-than-expected rise. Investors will also closely watch the number of policymakers supporting a rate hike to gauge the likelihood of monetary tightening before year-end.
Conversely, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week. This divergence in policy expectations favors the dollar and acts as a primary source of pressure on GBP/USD. Sterling may remain vulnerable as long as the market views the Fed as more hawkish than the BoE.
The Bank of England is also reportedly considering adjustments to its bond-selling program by halting sales of 20-year and 30-year bonds. This move aims to alleviate pressure on UK borrowing costs amidst global bond market volatility.
GBP/USD continues to face a bearish bias due to a combination of unconvincing labor market data and the policy divergence between the BoE and the Fed. The 1.3465 area is a key level to watch; if the Fed signals a hawkish stance while the BoE holds rates steady, pressure on sterling could persist. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
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Pound sterling kembali melemah terhadap dolar AS pada perdagangan Selasa (15/09), membawa GBP/USD mendekati level terendah dalam lima pekan di sekitar 1,3465. Sterling mencatat penurunan untuk hari kedua berturut-turut karena data tenaga kerja Inggris yang beragam belum mampu mengimbangi kekuatan dolar.
Tingkat pengangguran Inggris berdasarkan standar ILO bertahan di 4,9% dalam tiga bulan hingga Juli, lebih baik dibandingkan perkiraan pasar yang memperkirakan kenaikan menjadi 5%. Namun, jumlah pengajuan tunjangan pengangguran justru meningkat sebanyak 27.800, jauh di atas perkiraan kenaikan 8.300 dan berbalik dari penurunan 11.800 pada bulan sebelumnya.
Pasar kini mengalihkan perhatian pada pertemuan Bank of England pada Kamis. BoE secara luas diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga, kecuali data inflasi Inggris pada Rabu menunjukkan kenaikan jauh lebih tinggi dari perkiraan. Investor juga akan mencermati jumlah anggota yang mendukung kenaikan bunga untuk menilai peluang pengetatan sebelum akhir tahun.
Di sisi lain, Federal Reserve diperkirakan menaikkan suku bunga pekan ini. Perbedaan ekspektasi kebijakan tersebut memberikan keuntungan bagi dolar dan menjadi salah satu tekanan utama terhadap GBP/USD. Sterling dapat tetap rentan selama pasar melihat The Fed lebih hawkish dibandingkan BoE.
Bank of England juga dilaporkan mempertimbangkan perubahan program penjualan obligasinya dengan menghentikan penjualan obligasi tenor 20 dan 30 tahun. Langkah tersebut ditujukan untuk mengurangi tekanan terhadap biaya pinjaman Inggris di tengah volatilitas pasar obligasi global.
GBP/USD masih menghadapi bias bearish karena kombinasi data tenaga kerja yang kurang meyakinkan dan perbedaan arah kebijakan antara BoE dan The Fed. Area 1,3465 menjadi level penting yang perlu diperhatikan. Jika The Fed memberikan sinyal hawkish sementara BoE tetap menahan bunga, tekanan terhadap sterling berpotensi berlanjut.