Brent Breaches US$113; Supply Crisis Looms!

Global oil prices remained relatively stable during the Asian trading session on Friday (October 23, 2026), following a roughly 4% surge in the previous session driven by growing concerns over energy supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures dipped 0.2%—or 21 cents—to US$112.96 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.3%—or 27 cents—to US$98.12 per barrel. Despite this slight correction, Brent remains near a five-month high, reflecting the significant geopolitical risks overshadowing the global energy market.

Tensions have escalated following attacks by the Houthi group on Saudi Arabia—one of the world’s largest oil exporters—sparking fears of disruptions to energy production and distribution. Saudi Aramco reportedly ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran on Thursday, as clashes between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition intensified. The conflict has also heightened security risks for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical international shipping artery connecting the Red Sea to the route toward the Suez Canal.

Supply disruptions have also emerged in Libya, where a valve on an oil pipeline connecting the Hamada and Tahara fields to the port of Zawiya was shut down. This closure has led to a decline in production at both fields, further fueling concerns regarding global oil availability. The combination of production disruptions in North Africa and mounting distribution risks in the Middle East has provided support for oil prices, even as market participants began adjusting their positions following the sharp gains seen in the previous session.

Meanwhile, diplomatic developments between Russia and Ukraine have also drawn investor attention. Russia has signaled its readiness to resume peace talks—mediated by the United States—in November, following a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg. Petersburg. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also expressed hope that negotiations could take place as early as November. Progress in these talks could potentially influence the outlook for Russian energy supplies, given that international sanctions have thus far restricted Russian oil access to global markets.

Looking ahead, Brent prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by developments in the Middle East conflict, production disruptions in Libya, and the prospects for Russia-Ukraine negotiations. On a weekly basis, Brent is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain, while WTI also shows potential for growth.