Gold Price Breaks Below US$4,000; US Inflation Concerns Trigger Sell-Off

Global gold prices faced renewed pressure during trading on Friday (October 23, 2026), falling below the psychological level of US$4,000 per troy ounce—a low not seen in over three months. Spot gold dipped to as low as US$3,986.50 per troy ounce before staging a limited recovery to the US$4,030 range. On a weekly basis, the precious metal is on track for a decline of more than 3%, driven by mounting concerns over inflation in the United States (US) and the prospect that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) may maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

Pressure on gold intensified following a surge in Brent crude oil prices, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Attacks by the Houthi group on facilities in Saudi Arabia sparked fears of energy supply disruptions, pushing oil prices to their highest level since May. Rising energy costs threaten to increase production and transportation expenses, while simultaneously sustaining global inflationary pressures. This situation has been compounded by US consumer and producer inflation data, which came in higher than market expectations, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains difficult to contain.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 27–28. Current market estimates suggest a 92% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at this meeting, while there is an 83% chance of a rate hike in December. The expectation of a hawkish monetary policy acts as a negative sentiment for gold, as the precious metal—unlike US government bonds—does not provide a yield. Furthermore, investors are awaiting the release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on October 29, which will serve as a key indicator for assessing inflation trends in relation to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Observers note that the weakening of gold reflects mounting fundamental pressure driven by surging energy prices, inflation concerns, and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes. The US$4,000 per troy ounce mark has emerged as a critical psychological level for short-term price movements. Should gold break through and remain below this level, selling pressure is likely to persist. Conversely, a easing of geopolitical tensions, the stabilization of oil prices, and a decline in expectations for monetary tightening could pave the way for a recovery. Nevertheless, as long as inflation risks remain elevated, gold is expected to continue fluctuating, with a persistent tendency toward downward pressure.