Oil Approaches $100 as Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz Escalate

Global crude oil prices strengthened again during trading on Wednesday (October 21, 2026), with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) approaching $100 per barrel—its highest level since September 17. This surge was driven by growing concerns regarding the security of global energy supplies following a series of attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. During Wednesday’s session, WTI climbed to $99.95 per barrel, while Brent crude rose to $110.85 per barrel. Persistent geopolitical tensions have led investors to once again factor in the risk of disruptions to oil distribution from the Middle East.

The situation intensified further after the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a vessel had come under attack near the waters off Oman. Meanwhile, Iranian state media outlet IRIB News stated that a large oil tanker had struck a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz. These reports have heightened concerns regarding the safety of a shipping lane that serves as a vital hub for global energy trade. Iran has reportedly stepped up its offensive activities in recent weeks, including incidents targeting the engine sections of vessels. Such conditions threaten to drive up shipping and insurance costs, though not all reported incidents have been independently verified.

Despite these mounting security threats, oil exports from the Middle East have shown resilience. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels. Monitoring data from Kpler and Vortexa also indicate that energy exports from the Middle East have increased since the summer, supported by the use of alternative routes and ship-to-ship cargo transfers. Nevertheless, this stability remains vulnerable to further attacks. High shipping risks are keeping the market cautious, as any disruption to a key strategic distribution route could drive up logistics costs and impact global oil prices.

Beyond geopolitical tensions, oil prices are also being supported by expectations of a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude stocks fell by approximately 4.9 million barrels last week, signaling a tightening of domestic supply. Investors are now closely monitoring official U.S. government inventory data and security developments in the Strait of Hormuz to gauge the future direction of prices. Should threats to shipping persist and U.S. oil inventories continue to shrink, oil prices could maintain their upward momentum. Conversely, the smooth flow of exports from the Middle East could cap further gains.

Newsmaker’s Point of View

Current global oil price movements indicate that geopolitical risk remains the primary market driver, even though physical supply disruptions have not been as severe as investors initially feared. Attacks on oil tankers have increased the risk premium, while the recovery of exports from the Middle East serves as a counterbalancing factor that could temper further price surges.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude faces a psychological threshold at US$100 per barrel. Sustaining a position above this level could open the door for a rally toward the US$102–105 range. Conversely, if tensions subside and oil flows remain stable, prices could see a correction toward the US$97–95 area. These scenarios are analytical projections, not definitive price forecasts.

Conclusion: Oil retains a bullish bias in the short term, though a recovery in Middle East exports may limit further upside. If oil prices remain elevated, the risk of global inflation could rise, reinforcing expectations for higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Such a scenario would likely bolster the U.S. dollar while exerting pressure on gold and the currencies of energy-importing nations, including the Indonesian rupiah.

Source: Newsmaker.id