Trending
Oil
Source: Newsmaker.id
Global oil prices strengthened once more during trading on Wednesday (October 21, 2026), driven by growing concerns over energy supply disruptions amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
As of 14:33 WIB (Western Indonesian Time), Brent crude rose 0.86% to US$109.73 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.78% to US$98.58 per barrel. This uptick was fueled by heightened security risks to shipping lanes around the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of attacks on Saudi Arabian energy facilities, prompting market participants to once again factor a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices.
Tensions escalated after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that naval mines planted in the Strait of Hormuz had obstructed three tankers attempting to pass through the waterway without authorization from Tehran. It was further alleged that two of the tankers caught fire following mine explosions, though these details remain subject to independent verification. Meanwhile, the Houthi group in Yemen has claimed responsibility for attacks on several strategic Saudi Arabian facilities, including Saudi Aramco’s infrastructure in Yanbu, the Shaybah oil field, and airports in Riyadh and Abha. These incidents have intensified concerns regarding the security of oil shipments from the Persian Gulf region to international markets.
The impact of the conflict extends beyond crude oil prices, contributing to a sharp spike in global energy shipping costs. Goldman Sachs reported that the average global crude oil freight rate has surpassed US$20 per barrel—a nearly sevenfold increase from the approximately US$3 per barrel recorded the previous year. It is estimated that the war-risk premium for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz accounts for roughly US$7 of this rise in shipping costs. High shipping rates threaten to squeeze profit margins for oil refineries—particularly in Asia—while simultaneously driving up the prices of refined fuel products in the global market.
Market participants are closely monitoring security developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the activities of Iran and the Houthi group, and the ability of producing nations to maintain the smooth flow of oil exports. Although oil shipments from the Gulf region have shown signs of recovery, high logistics costs and the persistent threat of attacks on tankers continue to temper market optimism. Should disruptions to shipping lanes escalate, oil prices could remain strong and retest previous highs. Conversely, a de-escalation of the conflict and the normalization of energy shipments could reduce the geopolitical risk premium that has recently bolstered global oil prices.
Newsmaker’s Point of View
Current oil price movements suggest that the primary challenge in the energy market is not merely the availability of supply, but also the high costs and risks associated with transporting oil to consuming nations. Even if oil production and exports remain stable, surging shipping costs and war-risk insurance premiums could still drive up the energy prices paid by consumers.
From a technical perspective, Brent crude needs to hold the US$108 level as short-term support. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise, prices could retest the US$110–112 range, with the potential to climb toward US$115 should the risk of supply disruptions intensify. Conversely, an easing of tensions could lead to a correction toward US$105 per barrel. These levels serve as technical benchmarks for monitoring, not as definitive price predictions.
Conclusion: Global oil prices retain a bullish bias due to elevated geopolitical risks. If energy prices continue to climb, global inflationary pressures may persist, reinforcing the case for central banks to maintain high interest rates. For Indonesia, this situation could increase the cost of energy imports, add pressure on the rupiah, and affect the outlook for domestic inflation.
Source: Newsmaker.id