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Source: Newsmaker.id
Tensions between the United States and Iran have surged again after US forces launched a new wave of strikes against targets linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Shortly thereafter, Tehran announced it had carried out retaliatory strikes against American bases in the region.
US Central Command stated that the completed operation targeted IRGC air defense sites, radar systems, maritime facilities, mine-laying capabilities, and communication sites. Washington described the strikes as a response to IRGC attempts to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and US military personnel in the region.
President Donald Trump stated that the latest US strikes were in retaliation for alleged Iranian attempts to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and prior attacks on military bases. He also warned that the US could launch further strikes if Tehran retaliated.
Iran subsequently claimed to have conducted a "decisive operation" against US bases in the region. The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran fired missiles at an American base in Jordan, although there has been no immediate confirmation from the US regarding the claim.
This escalation immediately triggered a rise in energy prices. WTI crude oil surged past US$90 per barrel, while European natural gas futures climbed to their highest level since January 2023. These increases reflect market concerns regarding potential supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region.
The Strait of Hormuz has once again become a focal point, as it serves as a critical route for global oil shipments. Prior to this latest escalation, shipping volumes through the strait had recovered to roughly half of pre-war levels, supported by a decline in attacks and a shift toward covert transport operations by several major Middle Eastern producers.
On the political front, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that Iran's leadership is facing mounting pressure from domestic economic issues. He anticipates that Tehran will ultimately be willing to negotiate a deal to end the conflict, even though recent developments indicate that the risk of escalation remains very high.
Newsmaker Analysis: The renewed US-Iran escalation has once again made geopolitical risk a primary driver of energy markets. If attacks persist and the Strait of Hormuz faces further disruption, oil prices could remain elevated, adding to global inflationary pressures. This scenario could reinforce expectations of tight monetary policy from central banks, including the Federal Reserve. However, if economic pressure prompts Iran to reopen the door to negotiations, the oil risk premium could subside, potentially leading to a price correction from current highs.
Source: Newsmaker.id