Trending
Global & Economy
Source: Newsmaker.id
The United States and Iran are showing signs of bracing for a protracted conflict, with little indication that a ceasefire will be reached anytime soon. Ongoing tensions have prevented Middle Eastern energy flows from returning to normal and kept geopolitical risks elevated.
Iran insists it will not back down despite facing economic pressure from US blockades and sanctions. Tehran has also signaled its readiness to escalate attacks on US and Gulf state assets should Washington expand its military operations. Meanwhile, senior White House officials are reportedly considering the possibility that the conflict could last much longer than initially anticipated.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point after a series of attacks on ships and tankers heightened the risk of supply disruptions. Prior to the hostilities, the waterway handled approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas flows, but current traffic remains well below normal levels. Brent crude has held above US$100 per barrel, briefly trading around US$102, driven by rising risk premiums.
The threat has also extended to the Red Sea. Iran-allied Houthi rebels have seized control of Mocha in Yemen and are advancing toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. These developments raise the risk that two of the world's key energy trade chokepoints could face simultaneous pressure.
Iran continues to showcase its military capabilities as part of a strategy to boost its leverage against Washington. Retaliatory rhetoric has intensified, while the US maintains economic and military pressure. These conditions make the likelihood of rapid de-escalation slim, requiring markets to prepare for prolonged volatility.
Newsmaker Analysis: The US-Iran conflict is increasingly viewed as a structural risk to energy markets rather than a mere temporary disruption. As long as access to Hormuz remains constrained and pressure on Bab al-Mandeb mounts, oil prices are likely to remain elevated. The impact could ripple through to global inflation, bond yields, and interest rate policies, while also driving up demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id