Negotiations Considered Progressive, Trump Optimistic Iran Conflict Can Ease
President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were going "very well" and assessed the possibility of a ceasefire soon. This statement came as the war involving the US, Iran, and Israel has been going on for about a month, while diplomatic channels are beginning to reopen through direct and indirect communication. Reuters reported that Trump also said Iran's new leaders appear "very reasonable," amid Pakistan's preparations to host peace talks.
These positive signals raise hopes that the military pressure that has dominated the region is beginning to be offset by political efforts. A few days earlier, Trump had postponed attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days while declaring talks were going well. However, at the same time, the AP report indicated that Washington was maintaining the option of strategic pressure, including discussing measures against Iran's key oil assets. This makes the peace process appear promising, but remains fragile as diplomacy and threats continue to coexist.
In terms of causes, Trump's optimism appears to stem from the reopening of negotiating channels and the presence of regional mediators actively promoting the talks. Reuters reported that contacts between the two sides were ongoing, both directly and indirectly, while the AP reported that Pakistan was preparing a forum for talks to end the war. However, the two sides' positions remain significantly different, and Iran had previously considered the US ceasefire proposal too one-sided.
Consequently, this statement could calm global markets somewhat by opening up the possibility of de-escalation, especially amidst soaring energy prices and concerns about supply disruptions from the Gulf region. However, as long as there is no formal agreement, investors are likely to remain cautious because the risk of conflict remains high and developments on the ground are still changing rapidly. In other words, optimism about the ceasefire is indeed starting to emerge, but the market is still waiting for concrete evidence before truly considering the crisis to be over.
Cause:
Trump's optimism was fueled by the reopening of diplomatic communications between the US and Iran, the involvement of mediators such as Pakistan, and the pause in attacks on Iranian energy facilities to allow space for talks. However, the process remains complicated because both sides still have differing demands and the military situation has not completely calmed down.
Impact:
This comment could provide some support to market sentiment by opening up the possibility of a decrease in geopolitical tensions. However, because a final agreement has not yet been reached, oil prices, the US dollar, and risk assets still have the potential to fluctuate volatilely following developments in the negotiations and the military situation in the region. (CP)
Source: Newsmaker.id
