Brent Rises, Supply Risks Widen After Houthi Attack
Oil prices rose at the start of the week as the Iran conflict escalated after the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen launched attacks on Israel and declared the operation would continue until attacks on Iran and its proxies ceased. Brent rose and traded around $115.30 per barrel in the Asian session, while WTI strengthened to around $10.77 per barrel, reinforcing the energy risk premium that has been high since the war began.
The market believes the latest escalation adds a new layer of risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz. While the Houthis have not explicitly threatened the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea shipping lane, their ability to pressure the route is a concern as it serves as a bypass when Hormuz is disrupted. Risks also encompass infrastructure and alternative export points in the region, including Saudi ports on the Red Sea that are used for some exports when Hormuz access is compromised.
On the fundamental side, Iran still restricts most traffic through Hormuz and allows only a limited number of vessels to pass, so the short-term supply tightness is reflected in the price structure. Reuters highlighted the surge in oil prices amid concerns about supply disruptions, while the increasingly bullish market structure indicates investors remain focused on the risk of physical availability, rather than just daily headline volatility.
Going forward, the market will monitor whether the Houthis extend pressure on the Red Sea route, changes in access policy in Hormuz, and the dynamics of the US troop buildup in the region three factors that will determine whether the geopolitical premium persists or declines again. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
