Gold Breaches US$4,300; NFP Looms as Final Test
Gold prices continued to advance ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. On Thursday morning (August 6), spot gold briefly touched the US$4,302–US$4,303 per troy ounce range before settling back around US$4,285. This rise signals strong buying momentum; however, the US$4,300 level also serves as a psychological threshold prone to triggering profit-taking.
Fundamentally, gold’s trajectory remains supported by a series of weakening US labor market data. JOLTS job openings fell to 7.359 million, while ADP recorded an increase of only 44,000 jobs. The employment component of the ISM Services index also dropped to 47.4, entering contraction territory. This combination signals that long-term activity is losing momentum, although ADP figures do not always align with the government's NFP report.
Market consensus projects an increase of approximately 80,000 jobs for July—following a gain of just 57,000 in June—with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%. There is a distinct possibility that the NFP figure could come in below expectations or remain subdued, given that ADP, JOLTS, and the ISM employment index all point to a slowdown. However, the market must also monitor the unemployment rate and wage growth, as these figures could alter gold's initial reaction.
Geopolitical factors are exerting a unique influence on gold. Progress toward the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pressured oil prices and eased inflation risks, thereby dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. This environment benefits gold by weakening the dollar and lowering yields. Conversely, the agreement does not guarantee an immediate return to normal operations in the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the safe-haven premium has not yet fully dissipated.
From a technical standpoint, the short-term trend remains bullish; however, the rapid ascent leaves gold vulnerable to a correction. The US$4,300–US$4,310 zone serves as the key resistance level. A strong breakout and close above this area could pave the way toward US$4,330–US$4,350. Conversely, a failure to hold the US$4,300 level could trigger a price correction to US$4,270–US$4,250, followed by the next support level at US$4,220–US$4,200.
Newsmaker Analysis: Gold maintains a positive bias ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, though expectations of weak labor market data are largely already priced in. An NFP figure below 80,000, coupled with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, could drive gold to break through the US$4,300 level more decisively. However, even an NFP figure that aligns with expectations could trigger profit-taking, given gold's sharp rally prior to the data release. The risk of a correction would increase significantly if the NFP exceeds 100,000, unemployment fails to rise, and wage growth remains high. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
