Gold's Sharp Rebound: Can It Continue?
According to Newsmaker's analysis, gold's rise to the US$4,300 area is interesting because, in theory, the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal should have dampened demand for safe havens. However, gold actually rose because the market interpreted the deal differently: oil prices fell, energy inflation eased, expectations of a Fed rate hike also declined, and the dollar weakened. Reuters noted that spot gold briefly rose to US$4,322.87/oz, while August futures rose to US$4,344.80, driven by news of the initial US-Iran agreement and a weakening dollar.
Therefore, the reason for gold's rise is not simply a "war escalation," but rather a repricing of interest rates. When the Iran deal opened the door to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fell more than 4%, energy inflation pressures eased, and the probability of a US rate hike in December dropped to around 48% from 69%. This made gold attractive again, as the burden on yields and the dollar eased.
However, as for "market opinion," this rise still needs to be interpreted with caution. The US-Iran deal has been announced, but the final text has not been fully published, and several key issues remain unclear, including the Hormuz mechanism, Iran's nuclear program, and risks from the Lebanese or Israeli front. The Guardian also noted that significant ambiguity remains over the details of the deal, despite the market's initial positive response.
Gold is currently trading strongly in the US$4,300s after sentiment surrounding the US-Iran peace deal weighed on the dollar and eased concerns about energy inflation. Technically, as long as prices can hold above US$4,300-4,330, there's still a chance for a retest to US$4,350, then to US$4,380-4,400 if buying momentum remains solid. However, if the price fails to maintain the US$4,300 area, a correction could lead to US$4,250-4,220. If pressure intensifies, the US$4,100-4,000 area could once again become a major support area. Therefore, gold's future direction will depend heavily on confirmation of the Iran deal, the movement of the DXY, oil prices, and the Fed's signals.
In conclusion, gold is currently rising due to a combination of a weaker dollar and softening Fed expectations, not a pure safe haven. As long as prices remain above the US$4,300 area, short-term sentiment remains positive. However, if the Iran deal fails to be finalized, oil could rebound, inflation could become a concern again, and gold could become volatile again. The next main focuses: official confirmation of the deal details, oil prices, the DXY, and the Fed meeting. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
