Hormuz Tensions Escalate: Could Brent Hit US$100?
Oil prices fluctuated during Monday's trading (August 17) as rising tensions in Lebanon and fresh attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz cast doubt on the prospects for US-Iran peace. Brent crude traded below US$89 per barrel after surging approximately 6% last week, while WTI held steady around US$82 per barrel.
Geopolitical risks have resurfaced following Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—marking one of the deadliest days of fighting in recent months. Simultaneously, several vessels have come under attack in the Hormuz region, including a ship affiliated with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran also remain deadlocked.
The United States continues to ramp up pressure on Iran through naval blockades and plans for additional economic sanctions. The Donald Trump administration has signaled that new restrictions on Iran could be announced soon. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly bolstering its military readiness, including missile and drone production and coordination with allied groups in the region.
Despite the high risk of supply disruptions, oil price gains remain capped as some Middle Eastern producers continue to ship large volumes of oil from the Persian Gulf. Iran and Oman are also reportedly nearing an agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, though the US is not yet involved and is likely to continue demanding full freedom of navigation for commercial shipping.
Newsmaker Analysis: The oil market is currently caught between the risk of geopolitical escalation and concerns over oversupply. Should the US-Iran conflict intensify and shipping through Hormuz face drastic disruption, Brent prices could potentially move toward US$100 per barrel. Conversely, if oil shipments continue and global demand weakens, the market remains vulnerable to a correction toward the US$80 level. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
