Iran-Oman Agreement Keeps Oil Prices at Lows
Oil prices maintained their downward trend during Thursday morning trading (Aug 6) after Iran and Oman reached an understanding regarding shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 07:09 WIB, Brent crude fell 0.3% to US$79.23 per barrel, while WTI weakened 0.5% to US$74.84. WTI has lost approximately 11% over the first three sessions of the week.
Iran stated that a draft joint statement with Oman is entering its final stages. The temporary route is expected to be usable for a period of two to four months. However, this understanding does not mean the entire Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen, as issues regarding security guarantees, vessel monitoring, and the obligations of the parties involved still need to be resolved.
US President Donald Trump said in Las Vegas that Washington remains in talks with Tehran and will monitor the progress of negotiations. While the statement sustained market optimism, traders remain cautious, given that previous agreements have collapsed and some regional officials believe key details have not yet been fully finalized.
Supply risks have also not fully subsided. The Houthi group claimed to have attacked a Saudi oil tanker and threatened other vessels in the Red Sea. Simultaneously, oil shipments via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal faced renewed disruptions due to drone alerts, security concerns, and tanker shortages.
Additional pressure stemmed from a rise in US crude oil inventories by approximately 2.5 million barrels—contrary to forecasts of a decline. Stockpiles at Cushing also climbed back above the 20-million-barrel mark. This increase in domestic supply intensified bearish pressure, although a drop in refined product stocks and Middle East-related risks helped limit the sell-off.
Newsmaker Analysis: Oil retains a bearish bias as long as Brent remains below US$80 and WTI stays below US$75.50. Brent has the potential to test US$78–US$77, while WTI could fall towards US$74–US$72.50 if the Hormuz deal is announced and ship flows start to increase. Conversely, implementation failure or a new attack could return Brent to US$81–US$82 and WTI to US$77–US$78.(gn)
Source: Newsmaker.id
