Trump Refuses to Extend Truce; Peace Prospects Dim
Prospects for peace between the United States and Iran have deteriorated again after President Donald Trump confirmed he has no interest in extending the memorandum of understanding that expired on Monday. The agreement was originally designed as a 60-day pause to allow Washington and Tehran to reach a more permanent peace deal.
However, two months after the agreement was signed, both sides now consider it effectively void. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to spark new clashes, while conflicts in several parts of the Middle East—including Lebanon—heighten the risk of regional escalation. There has been no significant progress regarding Iran's nuclear program, which remains one of Washington's key demands.
Trump maintains that the U.S. holds strong leverage through its naval blockade of Iranian ports. He reiterated his claim that Washington has full control over the Strait of Hormuz—a statement that directly contradicts Tehran's position, as Iran insists it has the right to regulate traffic through this strategic waterway.
This uncertainty was immediately reflected in energy markets. Brent crude closed trading on Monday near US$91 per barrel, having surged approximately 8% since the start of last week. Markets are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz reopening soon, even though the route handled about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows prior to the conflict.
Oman is still attempting to mediate talks with Iran regarding the management of the Strait. Tehran has stated that new shipping charts have been finalized as part of a traffic regulation framework, but a final agreement has not yet been reached. Iran also continues to demand that the U.S. lift its blockade before shipping operations can be normalized.
Newsmaker Analysis: Trump's refusal to extend the truce reinforces the signal that U.S.-Iran diplomacy is losing momentum. As long as the blockade persists and the Strait remains closed, the risk premium on oil is likely to remain high. This situation also sustains the risk of global inflation and supports demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while any new military escalation could trigger significantly higher market volatility.
Source: Newsmaker.id
