Trump Plays Two-Way Game: Peace Path Opened, Iran Oil Remains Under Pressure
President Donald Trump has displayed a seemingly paradoxical stance toward Iran: on the one hand, he is allowing space for peace negotiations, while on the other hand, he is keeping open the option of seizing control of Iran's oil assets. Reuters reported that Trump postponed attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days, until April 6, 2026, while saying the talks were going "very well." At the same time, however, he also signaled that Iranian oil could become part of Washington's strategic pressure. This situation has led the market to interpret US policy not as a complete softening, but as diplomacy accompanied by threats.
This "two-sided" impression arises because the peace path and military pressure go hand in hand. The AP reported that Pakistan is preparing to host US-Iran talks, but Iran continues to warn that a US ground invasion would be met with a strong response. At the same time, Reuters and AP reports indicate that the conflict has entered its fifth week, with the risk of escalating after the Iran-backed Houthis opened a new front and the United States strengthened its military presence in the region. This means that diplomatic opportunities do exist, but real tensions on the ground have not subsided.
Strategically, Trump's move can be interpreted as a "talk and pressure" model: negotiations remain open to find a political solution, but pressure is maintained to prevent Iran from feeling too strong a bargaining position. Reuters reports that the US proposal includes major demands such as curbs on Iran's nuclear program, missiles, and regional influence, while energy markets continue to be shaken by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the surge in oil prices. In this context, the discussion about Iranian oil is not merely a harsh comment, but part of an effort to maintain US leverage while the negotiations have not yet reached a clear point.
Consequently, statements like these keep global markets on edge. When diplomacy is accompanied by new threats to energy assets, investors tend to assess the risks of conflict as not truly abating. Reuters reports that Brent has surged sharply throughout March, while the AP highlights growing concerns that a protracted war could increase inflationary pressures and slow global growth. As long as the outcome of the negotiations remains unclear, oil prices, the US dollar, and risk assets are likely to remain highly sensitive to any new political commentary or military developments in the region.
Cause:
Trump appears to be taking a dual approach, as the US appears to want to keep the diplomatic channel alive without relinquishing strategic pressure on Iran. Negotiations are indeed underway, including through Pakistan, but the conflict on the ground has not abated, and the threat to global energy flows remains significant. Therefore, the Iranian oil issue is being used as a bargaining chip, not only as an economic issue but also as part of geopolitical pressure.
Impact:
This divided stance makes the peace process appear fragile and markets remain nervous. Oil prices could remain high because supply risks have not yet disappeared, the US dollar is likely to remain strong due to safe-haven demand, and the stock market could potentially be pressured by risk-off sentiment. For investors, the message is that negotiations are progressing, but the threat of escalation is far from over. (CP)
Source: Newsmaker.id
