Iran Retaliates Against US Attacks in Gulf, Ceasefire Threatens to Collapse
Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated sharply. Iranian forces launched attacks on US military infrastructure in several Gulf states on Thursday (July 9), after Washington first attacked Iran's southern coastal areas and eastern provinces. This escalation has put the three-week-old ceasefire agreement under further strain.
The attacks occurred on the same day Iran buried Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Mashhad. The funeral procession took place amidst a wave of national mourning, with crowds filling the streets carrying Iranian flags, photos of Khamenei, and revolutionary symbols.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the US attacks and Washington's interference in shipping arrangements of disrupting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said shipping traffic in the waterway has only recovered to about 50% of pre-war levels in the past two weeks.
Iran emphasized that ships may only pass through routes designated by Tehran. The Revolutionary Guard also warned that any further US intervention would be met with a harsh response.
From the United States side, CENTCOM stated that the latest attacks were carried out to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, after Washington accused Iranian forces of attacking three tankers in the area. US President Donald Trump also said the attacks were in retaliation for the bombing of a ship blamed on Iran.
Iran has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks on the ships. However, some analysts believe Tehran often uses pressure on energy routes as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
Iran's retaliatory attacks reportedly targeted US Patriot systems in Kuwait, an early warning site in Qatar, and a US military fuel storage facility in Bahrain. Kuwait reported encountering cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones in its airspace, with one person injured by shrapnel.
Tensions also spread to Jordan. Sirens sounded after missiles from Iran were detected, while several missiles were intercepted without reports of casualties or major damage.
Meanwhile, Qatar, Turkey, and Oman called for a halt to the military escalation. Qatar condemned the attacks on commercial shipping but also urged all parties to return to diplomacy.
The Strait of Hormuz has been a major market focus as the waterway handled about a fifth of global oil supplies before the war. If the route is disrupted again, the impact could be immediately felt on oil prices, energy inflation, and risk asset sentiment.
Oil prices had surged due to concerns about new attacks on global shipping and supply routes. However, prices then turned lower on Thursday as investors weighed whether this escalation was merely a temporary tactical move or signaled the collapse of a full-blown ceasefire.
Trump himself said he did not expect the current situation to escalate into a full-blown war with Iran. However, his statement that the interim deal with Iran was "over" kept the market cautious.
For the market, the US-Iran conflict remains a major risk. If attacks in the Gulf region continue and the Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly difficult to navigate, oil prices could potentially surge again. This could amplify inflation concerns, support the US dollar and Treasury yields, but pressure risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, and limit gold's rally. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id
