Gold Begins to Find Direction, Oil Begins to Cut War Premium
Gold prices moved within a limited range of around US$4,070 per troy ounce after weakening for three consecutive days. This movement indicates that the market is still unsure whether the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran will escalate into a major crisis or merely a temporary geopolitical pressure.
The conflict escalated again after the US launched attacks on Iran for the second consecutive day. US Central Command said the attacks were aimed at weakening Iran's ability to disrupt shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran also threatened to carry out major retaliatory operations against US bases in the Middle East.
However, the market response was not one-way. Gold began to find support due to a technical rebound. Third, the US dollar was not particularly strong. If the DXY only moved flat or weakened slightly, gold had room to rise. Because gold is priced in dollars, when the dollar is not dominant, pressure on gold is lessened.
Fourth, the decline in oil prices actually helped gold slightly.
Meanwhile, oil prices began to pare some of their gains after previously surging due to fear factors. Oil prices were boosted by the US attack on Iran, risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the threat of energy supply disruptions. However, when President Donald Trump signaled that a resumption of war with Iran was unlikely, some market participants began profit-taking.
For gold, the main pressure remains on inflation risks and the direction of the Fed's policy. If oil prices surge again, energy inflation could increase and force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting also showed that some officials briefly considered raising interest rates, although they ultimately supported the decision to hold.
Looking ahead, the US$4,070–US$4,050 area is a key zone for gold. If it can hold this level, the opportunity for a rebound to US$4,100–US$4,120 remains open. Meanwhile, for oil, the Brent US$78–US$80 area is key. If it fails to break through US$80, prices could potentially correct to US$76–US$75. However, if new attacks occur or the Strait of Hormuz becomes more disrupted, oil could rebound quickly as the war risk premium has not yet completely disappeared. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
