Oil Trades Volatile as Hormuz Tensions and Demand Outlook Take Center Stage
Oil prices moved in a volatile range in today’s trading session as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East conflict and its implications for global supply. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran have kept the vital Strait of Hormuz under pressure. The strategic waterway previously handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, meaning even minor disruptions can quickly trigger sharp price spikes.
From a fundamental standpoint, the market’s focus remains on two key factors: supply stability and global demand prospects. On one hand, geopolitical risks are maintaining a significant risk premium in energy markets. Any potential military escalation or breakdown in diplomatic efforts could send prices surging again. On the other hand, traders are also weighing the impact of elevated energy costs on inflation and global economic growth. If inflationary pressures force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, oil demand could soften.
Beyond geopolitical concerns, the market is closely watching U.S. crude inventory data and signals from OPEC regarding production policy. Declining stockpiles typically support prices, while increased output or weaker demand expectations may cap further gains.
Technically, oil’s price structure maintains a bullish bias as long as it holds above key support levels. For today’s session, immediate support for Brent crude is seen in the 106–107 dollar per barrel range. Should selling pressure intensify and push prices below this zone, the next support is located around 104 dollars. On the upside, immediate resistance stands in the 111–113 dollar range. A sustained breakout above the psychological 113-dollar level could open the door for further gains toward 115–116 dollars.
With geopolitical risks still elevated and uncertainty surrounding the global demand outlook, oil prices are expected to remain volatile. Market participants are advised to closely monitor diplomatic developments in the Middle East as well as upcoming inventory and key economic data releases, which could swiftly shift sentiment during intraday trading.
Source : Newsmaker.id
