News Maker 23

The euro strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading on Monday (November 9, 2026), following two consecutive sessions of decline. The EUR/USD pair hovered around the 1.1150 level, bolstered by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in December. The euro’s gains were also supported by a weakening US dollar, even as the market continues to anticipate further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) at its upcoming policy meeting.

Support for the euro intensified after several ECB officials—including the heads of the German and Italian central banks—signaled that a rate hike in December has become increasingly likely. These expectations were reinforced by Eurozone inflation, which climbed to 4% in October, reaching its highest level in three years. Rising energy prices have been a primary driver of inflationary pressure in the region. ECB President Christine Lagarde previously emphasized that the central bank would closely monitor economic data before deciding whether a tightening of monetary policy is warranted next month.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure, despite persistent expectations for further Fed rate hikes. According to market probabilities reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an approximately 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 8–9. This suggests that investors continue to factor in the possibility of a sustained, tight monetary policy in the US. Nevertheless, the growing anticipation of ECB tightening has enhanced the euro’s appeal, limiting the dollar’s ability to gain ground against the European currency. Regarding the labor market, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for October showed an addition of 165,000 jobs—well above the market forecast of 65,000 and an increase from the 60,000 jobs added in September. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, performing better than the 4.2% expectation. These data points reflect the resilience of the U.S. labor market and could potentially support a policy of maintaining high interest rates. Moving forward, investors will be closely monitoring the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday (November 10) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday (November 13) for further clues regarding the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy.