Oil Prices Under Pressure as U.S. Inventories Surge by 9 Million Barrels

Global oil prices remained relatively stable during Asian trading on Wednesday (November 11, 2026), following declines in the two preceding sessions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for December delivery rose slightly by 0.2% to US$86.23 per barrel, after shedding nearly 5% over the first two days of the week. Meanwhile, Brent crude for January delivery had previously closed 1.2% lower at US$91.49 per barrel. The downward pressure on oil prices was driven by growing hopes for a resolution to the conflict between the United States (U.S.) and Iran, which has begun to ease market concerns regarding potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

Optimism regarding a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions grew after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that further military action against Iran is currently unnecessary. Nevertheless, diplomatic progress between the two nations remains uncertain, as security incidents continue to occur in the Middle East and no significant breakthroughs have been achieved in negotiations. Meanwhile, oil shipments from the Persian Gulf region have continued to recover, approaching pre-war levels, even as attacks on vessels persist. These conditions have led market participants to reduce the geopolitical risk premium that had previously fueled a sharp rise in oil prices.

A shift in market sentiment is evident in the decline of Brent crude, which had briefly breached the US$90-per-barrel mark for the first time since August. Although global oil prices remain up by approximately 50% for the year, November has marked a significant reversal, following a period where Brent reached a six-month high. Selling pressure intensified as algorithmic traders aggressively reduced their long positions. According to data from Kpler, the proportion of long positions held by trend-following commodity trading advisors in Brent fell to 9%, down from 45% in the previous session. A similar reduction in positions has also occurred in WTI, signaling that market momentum is shifting toward a bearish bias.

From a fundamental perspective, an increase in United States oil inventories has added further pressure on prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude oil stocks rose by approximately 9 million barrels last week, while inventories of distillate products—such as diesel—increased by 1.5 million barrels. This buildup in stocks may point to a supply-demand imbalance, with supply potentially outpacing market needs, though this remains subject to confirmation from official data. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has maintained its projection for U.S. crude oil production at 14.3 million barrels per day, while raising its price forecasts for gasoline and diesel for 2027, citing tight global fuel supplies. Investors are now awaiting the official U.S. inventory report, due Thursday, for a clearer picture of the energy supply-demand balance.