Global Oil Prices Plunge as Trump Tempers Threats Against Iran

Global oil prices continued to weaken during Asian trading on Tuesday (November 10, 2026), nearing their lowest levels since August, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that further military strikes against Iran are currently unnecessary. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for December delivery fell 0.4% to $86.48 per barrel, following a decline of more than 4% in Monday’s trading. Meanwhile, Brent crude for January delivery had previously plummeted 5.9%, closing at $92.57 per barrel. This decline reflects growing market optimism regarding the potential for resolving the Middle East conflict through diplomatic channels.

Hopes for peace strengthened further after Trump met with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at the White House on Monday. Trump stated that Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly weakened, though the United States maintains its military readiness should the situation deteriorate once again. Separately, the Democratic Party’s victory in the U.S. midterm elections has increased political pressure on the Trump administration to bring an end to the conflict. Some Democrats have even suggested leveraging the December 11 government funding deadline as a means to push for a policy shift regarding the conflict with Iran. These developments have bolstered expectations that the risk of military escalation may diminish in the near term.

The softening of oil prices also reflects a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that had previously driven energy prices sharply higher. Brent crude has fallen significantly from the six-month high reached in late October, having recorded its largest weekly decline since April 2020 just last week. Nevertheless, the prospect of a resolution remains uncertain, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran have yet to yield an agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously expressed skepticism regarding the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough in the near future. Iran continues to demand an end to the naval blockade and the lifting of economic sanctions, while Washington seeks guarantees for the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

The risk of energy supply disruptions remains a concern following reports that Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was targeted in an attack in the Medina region on Monday. The incident caused a limited fire—which was subsequently extinguished—but served as a reminder that Middle Eastern energy infrastructure remains vulnerable to security threats. Beyond that region, Ukraine continues to launch attacks on Russian oil refineries, while Moscow has likewise intensified pressure on Ukraine’s own energy infrastructure. Both nations are scheduled to begin U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. In addition to these geopolitical developments, investors are awaiting oil market reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), OPEC, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to assess the state of global energy supply and demand.

The decline in oil prices—toward $86 for WTI and $92 for Brent—suggests that expectations for a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict are beginning to alleviate concerns regarding global energy supply disruptions. However, diplomatic statements from Trump do not yet guarantee a peace agreement, especially as attacks on energy infrastructure persist and the conflicting demands of both nations remain unresolved. Should the negotiations show tangible progress and the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz stabilize, oil prices could potentially continue to weaken. Conversely, if military tensions escalate again or a major disruption to energy facilities occurs, oil prices could see a sharp rebound. Consequently, the trajectory of U.S.-Iran diplomacy and fundamental data on oil supply will be the primary factors determining the direction of energy prices in the near term.