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Gold
Source: Newsmaker.id
Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their gains during Thursday’s trading session (October 15), rising approximately 0.94% to US$4,143 per troy ounce. This upward movement occurred against the backdrop of a weakening global stock market, driven by concerns regarding the high level of investment in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector—a shift that prompted investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. government bonds.
A decline in U.S. Treasury yields also provided support for gold. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by about 9 basis points to 5.06%, its lowest level in three weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened toward 102.00—down from an earlier peak of 102.94—making gold relatively more attractive to investors holding currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
Gold’s strength persisted despite U.S. economic data indicating a resilient economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September surged 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations. Retail sales grew by 0.8%, while initial jobless claims came in at 199,000—slightly below the forecast of 200,000.
These figures suggest that inflationary pressures remain elevated, while the labor market and consumer spending stay robust. Such conditions could potentially justify a continued tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, the market currently views a rate hike at the October meeting as less likely than the prospect of rates remaining unchanged.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly noted that further interest rate hikes might still be necessary, though the timing remains under consideration. Meanwhile, John Williams and Philip Jefferson have previously signaled that the Federal Reserve has time to assess economic developments before implementing any further rate increases.
Newsmaker Analysis: Gold is currently receiving strong support from declining yields, a weaker dollar, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets. However, the fundamentals remain under pressure, as U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, retail sales, and labor market conditions point to a relatively strong economy. If yields and the dollar strengthen once again—driven by expectations of interest rate hikes—the rebound in gold could be stifled. Conversely, a continued decline in yields could create room for gold to sustain its positive momentum.
Source: Newsmaker.id