Global Dollar Stable Amid Fragile Ceasefire and the Fed's Cautious Stance
The US dollar has been relatively stable in recent trading, after previously experiencing a sharp weakening as market panic over the Middle East conflict eased. On Thursday, April 9, 2026, the Dollar Index (DXY) was recorded at around 99.07, indicating that global markets are still holding their positions while assessing whether the announced ceasefire will actually hold.
For the global economy, such dollar movements are crucial because the greenback remains the main benchmark for international trade, debt financing, capital flows, and the prices of many global commodities. When the dollar strengthens, many countries typically face higher import costs, particularly for energy and raw materials. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, these pressures can be somewhat alleviated, although the ultimate effect still depends on oil prices and geopolitical stability. Reuters reported that markets remain nervous because the ceasefire is considered fragile and the Strait of Hormuz remains a source of concern.
On the other hand, the dollar is also still supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance. The Fed's meeting minutes released on April 8th showed that more officials are opening up to the possibility of an interest rate hike if inflation remains high, especially if energy price pressures persist. However, many officials also see the possibility of a rate cut next if economic growth weakens and the labor market softens. This means that the dollar is currently being held back by two forces: inflation risks and the risk of an economic slowdown.
This situation means the global dollar lacks a clear direction. The market is not yet fully risk-on, but it has not yet returned to panic mode. In such a situation, any change in oil prices, developments in the ceasefire, or new comments from Fed officials could immediately trigger new movements in the dollar and have a broad impact on other global assets such as gold, bonds, stocks, and emerging market currencies. Reuters also noted that oil prices began to rise again on April 9th due to doubts about the continuation of the ceasefire, indicating that pressure on the global economy has not completely dissipated.
Overall, the market message is clear: the global dollar remains in a wait-and-see phase. As long as uncertainties about energy and the direction of US interest rates remain unanswered, the dollar has the potential to remain cautious. For the global economy, this means the risks of imported inflation, financing costs, and financial market volatility still require vigilance in the short term. (Zaf)
Source: Newsmaker.id
