Greenback in 'Standby' Mode—Jobless Claims Could Be the Trigger
The US dollar is moving steadily—strengthening slightly amid rapidly shifting global sentiment. Easing concerns about a US-Iran escalation have led markets to reduce their "panic hedging" mode, while solid US economic data has kept the dollar cushioned by yields and interest rate expectations.
DXY (Dollar Index): 99.17–99.19
EUR/USD: 1.163
USD/JPY: 158.6
GBP/USD: 1.344
Geopolitical sentiment has eased somewhat → risk mood improves
Trump's comments, which appeared to calm the situation in Iran, have led markets to reduce the scenario of a rapid escalation. Consequently, extreme safe-haven demand has subsided—but the dollar hasn't fallen immediately because interest rates remain supportive.
"Fed independence noise" persists, but the market sees limited impact.
Issues surrounding political pressure on the Fed remain in the headlines, but for now, the dollar remains supported by the differential in US interest rates versus other developed countries.
US data remains quite strong → expectations of the Fed holding interest rates steady.
The latest string of relatively solid data has made the market more cautious about pricing in a quick rate cut, preventing the USD from losing ground.
Today's main focus: Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed. Consensus for jobless claims is around 215,000 (vs. the previous 208,000). If the result is higher than expected, the USD could weaken as the labor market reads a loosening → the Fed is more likely to be dovish. If it is lower, the USD has the potential to strengthen.
Source: Newsmaker.id
