Brent Holds Near US$88, Supported by Supply Deficit
Oil prices remained near elevated levels during Thursday's trading (August 13) after posting gains for six consecutive sessions. Brent hovered around US$88 per barrel following a roughly 12% surge over the previous six sessions, while WTI traded below US$83. The market remains on the lookout for concrete developments regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran negotiations concerning Hormuz remain deadlocked. President Donald Trump stated that the United States has "full control" over the waterway, while Washington maintains a blockade on Iranian ports as part of its economic pressure campaign against Tehran. Pakistan, acting as a mediator, has also noted that the broader peace process is stalling.
Supply risks remain a key driver supporting oil prices. The International Energy Agency estimates a global market deficit of approximately 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter—more than double previous projections. For the full year of 2026, the deficit is expected to be the largest in five years due to the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure.
However, short-term downward pressure stems from a surge in US crude oil inventories. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows crude stocks rose by 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest increase since January 2023. This surge was concentrated in the Gulf Coast region, driven by weaker exports and rising imports, including renewed inflows from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
US fuel prices also remain high. Gasoline and diesel prices are at levels unusual for this time of year, adding pressure on consumers and keeping inflation concerns alive.
Newsmaker Analysis: The oil market is currently facing two opposing forces. A global deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day and the Hormuz deadlock keep the risk of price increases high, while the 17.4-million-barrel surge in US oil stocks acts as a short-term restraint. Until the situation in Hormuz returns to normal, Brent crude prices have the potential to remain in the US$85–US$90 range, with the possibility of further gains should supply disruptions intensify. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
