Oil Rises for Sixth Day; Brent Nears US$90
Oil prices strengthened for the sixth consecutive day in Wednesday's trading as the market remained skeptical about the likelihood of a deal to restore energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude edged closer to US$90 per barrel after surging approximately 12% over the previous five sessions, while WTI held above US$84.
Oil price movements remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran negotiations. Optimism had briefly emerged after Pakistan's Defense Minister stated that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement, and reports indicated that Iran-Oman talks regarding Hormuz had reached an advanced stage. However, there is no certainty that such a deal would immediately return energy traffic to normal.
Uncertainty mounted after US President Donald Trump stated that the United States had "total control" over Hormuz and asserted that he did not trust Iran. These remarks followed new demands Trump placed on Tehran, while Iran continued to insist on compensation as part of talks to resolve the conflict.
The market also faces escalating supply risks. The EIA projects that oil production disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict could reach approximately 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027. Vessel traffic through Hormuz remains severely restricted, while tensions have also spread to the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, industry data indicates a potential 9.1-million-barrel increase in US crude inventories last week. If confirmed by official data, this would mark the largest rise since February and could exert short-term downward pressure on prices. Investors are also awaiting monthly reports from the IEA and OPEC to assess the global supply-demand landscape.
Newsmaker Analysis: The six-day rally demonstrates that the market is still pricing in a significant risk premium due to the uncertainty surrounding Hormuz. Until energy flows normalize, Brent is likely to maintain its upward momentum toward the US$90–US$100 per barrel range. However, a significant rise in US oil inventories or the emergence of a concrete US-Iran deal could trigger profit-taking. Continued gains in oil prices also have the potential to heighten inflation risks and once again influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rates.
Source: Newsmaker.id
