Oil Surges, Hormuz Remains Market Pressure
Oil prices surged again after the United States launched a second day of military attacks on Iran. This escalation further strained the already fragile ceasefire, especially after Iran declared a halt to all shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the latest US attacks.
Brent crude rose more than 2% to US$95.25/barrel, while WTI rose 2.7% to US$92.48/barrel after rising as much as 4% earlier in the session. These gains extended a two-day rally, as the market reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices.
US President Donald Trump said the attacks could be halted after direct talks with Iranian officials, but he also warned of further attacks if Tehran did not sign an interim peace deal. Trump accused Iran of stalling negotiations, while US Central Command called the latest attacks a response to continued Iranian aggression.
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely closed, although the US military said commercial shipping was still passing through. These differing claims make it difficult for the market to gauge the true state of supply. However, disruptions to Hormuz remain significant because this route serves as a key transit point for oil, fuel, and natural gas from the Middle East to global markets.
From a fundamental perspective, supply pressures are also reinforced by US data. US crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, continuing their seven-week decline. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell slightly, indicating that the physical market is still absorbing limited supply.
Currently, the direction of oil prices depends largely on two factors: whether US-Iran diplomacy can resume, and whether shipping flows through Hormuz are truly disrupted more broadly. If the Hormuz shutdown continues, energy prices risk remaining high and could add to global inflationary pressures. However, if oil flows continue, albeit limited, price increases could be more manageable. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
