Oil Surges, New Attacks Test Ceasefire and Hormuz Deal Prospects
Oil prices surged after new attacks in the Persian Gulf and the latest US sanctions increased pressure on Iran, while the two sides remained divided over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose back to near $98 per barrel after falling more than 5% on Wednesday, while WTI hovered above $92.
According to a US official, American forces carried out an airstrike on a military site and targeted several points around Hormuz. The IRGC later claimed to have targeted the US base used to launch the attack. Meanwhile, Kuwaiti air defenses said they were responding to missile and drone threats, underscoring the fragile nature of the ceasefire.
The US also imposed sanctions on the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body Iran established to manage Hormuz. Washington said the entity was involved in a scheme that violates international law and could potentially be used to collect fees through shipping lanes. This move exacerbated friction as one of the main points of contention in the negotiations was whether Iran would retain control over traffic through the strait, which remains under a dual Iranian-US blockade.
Despite today's rally, oil remains on track for a second weekly decline as some in the market still hold the scenario of an interim agreement remaining possible. However, optimism about a "soon deal" is starting to fade, particularly due to the nuclear issue, Iran's demands regarding control of Hormuz, and Trump's rejection of sanctions relief and his assertion that he will not agree to a "bad deal."
In the physical market, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, including a drop in Cushing, Oklahoma, while official government data is scheduled for release on Thursday. This inventory drawdown adds short-term support to prices, especially as supply risks rise again.
The next direction remains headline-driven. If the ceasefire breaks down again or attacks spread to energy infrastructure, risk premiums could rise rapidly, especially when supply buffers are perceived as being depleted. Conversely, if there is verifiable progress regarding the opening of Hormuz, the rally could be corrected again. The market is also beginning to link oil volatility to inflation and interest rates, as prolonged supply disruptions risk maintaining inflationary pressures and reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
