Brent and WTI Surge Amid Peace Skepticism
Oil prices rose on Friday (May 22) as investors doubted a breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, although the weekly trend remained downward. Brent rose $3.30 (3.2%) to $105.88 per barrel, while WTI rose $2.53 (2.6%) to $98.88.
On a weekly basis, Brent fell more than 3% and WTI about 6%, influenced by price fluctuations related to expectations of a peace deal. A senior Iranian source said the gap with the US had narrowed, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called there were “positive signs,” but differences remained over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Six weeks after a fragile ceasefire, efforts to end the war have shown little progress. High oil supply disruptions have fueled concerns about inflation and the global economic outlook. Before the conflict, about 20% of global energy supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which now removes 14 million barrels per day from the market, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait.
The head of state oil company ADNOC stated that full flow through the Strait of Hormuz would not return until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ends now. China's refined fuel exports for June are expected to rise slightly from May to around 550,000 metric tons, to meet domestic demand.
Sources also said the seven major OPEC+ producing countries are likely to agree to a moderate output increase at their June 7 meeting, even though shipments in some countries are still disrupted by the war in Iran.
Variables to monitor: US-Iran negotiations, supply through the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ decisions, and global energy prices. (Arl)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
