Oil Rises Slightly Despite Stalled US-Iran Negotiations
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, despite being on a weekly downtrend as investors doubted a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. Brent rose $1.66, or 1.6%, to $104.24 per barrel, while WTI rose $1.11, or 1.2%, to $97.46 per barrel.
On a weekly basis, Brent fell 4.6% and WTI fell 7.6%, with prices fluctuating following changing expectations for a peace deal. A senior Iranian source said the gap with the US had narrowed, but differences remained over Tehran's uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
David Oxley, chief commodity economist at Capital Economics, believes oil prices will only decline if oil market fundamentals improve, which is unlikely until 2027. Supply disruptions and ongoing conflict continue to pressure prices, fueling concerns about global inflation and the economic outlook.
Analysis from Rakuten Securities predicts WTI will move in the range of $90–$110 per barrel in the coming week, consistent with the trend since late March. Meanwhile, BMI (Fitch Solutions) raised its average 2026 Brent price forecast to $90 per barrel, from $81.50 previously, reflecting the supply deficit and the time needed to restore Middle East energy infrastructure.
Approximately 20% of global energy supplies previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, which now holds back about 14 million barrels per day from the global market, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. The head of the UAE's state oil company stated that full oil flows through the Strait will not return until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ends soon.
In the context of OPEC+, seven producing countries are likely to agree on a moderate production increase for July, although shipments in some countries remain disrupted by the Iran conflict. The market is expected to continue monitoring OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical developments to assess the future direction of oil prices. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
