Oil Edges Higher as Gulf Clashes Threaten Fragile Ceasefire
Oil prices moved slightly higher as traders weighed whether renewed clashes between the United States and Iran could derail the already fragile ceasefire, reducing hopes that a peace agreement will be finalized soon.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded near $101 per barrel, though it remained on track for a weekly decline. Fresh fighting in the Persian Gulf unsettled markets, even as U.S. officials said they expect Iran to respond shortly to Washington’s latest proposal aimed at ending the war and reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Market attention remains firmly fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the conflict began at the end of February. The shutdown has triggered an unprecedented supply shock, choking off crude flows and forcing wells across the region to halt production. Analysts note that control of the strait has become one of Iran’s strongest bargaining tools in negotiations.
Tensions escalated after U.S. forces carried out airstrikes on two empty Iranian oil tankers that were reportedly attempting to breach a U.S. naval blockade. Washington also targeted missile and drone launch sites in Iran, claiming they were responsible for attacks on three American warships. Tehran criticized the strikes, accusing the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement and announcing it is preparing a new framework governing the legal regime of the strait.
President Donald Trump said three U.S. warships had successfully exited the waterway without damage and reiterated that the ceasefire remains in effect. However, he warned of potential “violent” escalation if a deal is not signed promptly. The oil market is now caught between two competing forces: diplomatic progress on one side and the risk of renewed conflict on the other.
Volatility has dominated trading this week, with prices swinging sharply as expectations for a resolution shift rapidly. Earlier in the week, Brent surged following Iranian attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, before easing as the Trump administration awaited Tehran’s response to its one-page proposal to end hostilities and reopen the strait.
Iran has yet to signal whether it will accept the proposed terms. The uncertainty has forced traders to scale back risk exposure, pushing open interest in Brent to multi-month lows. Meanwhile, additional regional incidents — including tanker seizures and intercepted missile and drone activity — have further clouded the outlook.
The head of the International Energy Agency warned that the world is currently losing millions of barrels per day due to the conflict, and that restoring production would take time even if hostilities end. With negotiations ongoing and military risks lingering, global energy markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.
Source : Newsmaker.id
