Oil Rises Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline, Market Awaits US-Iran Direction
Oil prices rose on Tuesday (April 21st) as market participants awaited the possibility of US-Iran talks, while the deadline for extending the ceasefire loomed and both sides remained deadlocked. Brent traded around US$96 per barrel after surging nearly 6% on Monday, while June WTI hovered around US$88.
The price increases reflected a re-increasing geopolitical risk premium, particularly as Iran has not confirmed its attendance at further talks in Pakistan before the ceasefire expires on Wednesday. Tensions center on a number of issues, including access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that serves as a chokepoint for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
From Washington, President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance was ready to depart for negotiations, but stressed that the US would not rush into a deal. Trump also threatened that military operations could resume if the two countries fail to reach an agreement, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the direction of escalation after the ceasefire expires.
Oil movements in recent days have been driven by changing market perceptions of two factors: the likelihood of an agreement and the smooth flow of navigation in Hormuz. If fighting re-ignites or shipping access is disrupted, the market believes the global energy crisis could worsen as supply risks rapidly increase.
Market participants are now focused on confirmation of the talks schedule, any signs of an extension or end to the ceasefire, and operational developments in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the market is also monitoring other lingering issues, including Iran's nuclear capabilities and regional dynamics, which are said to be contributing to the risk environment. (Arl)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
