Oil Consolidates at High Levels: Markets Holding Their Breath Again
Oil prices fell slightly on Friday (January 30th), but remained near six-month highs. The market is entering a consolidation phase after rallying in recent days—with the main factor still fueling the ongoing US-Iran tensions.
Brent futures closed at $70.69 per barrel, down 2 cents, or 0.03% (the March contract expires on Friday). Meanwhile, US WTI closed at $65.21 per barrel, down 21 cents, or 0.32%. The day before, oil briefly touched its highest level since early August after news emerged that Trump was considering action against Iran—including targeted strikes—which immediately sparked concerns about supply disruptions.
Although the US and Iran have both signaled a willingness to engage in dialogue, Tehran reiterated on Friday that its defense capabilities should not be on the agenda. Meanwhile, Washington has also increased pressure: the US has strengthened its military posture in the Middle East in recent weeks and imposed new sanctions targeting seven Iranian citizens and at least one entity.
On the macro front, the strengthening US dollar has also held back oil prices. The dollar rebounded from a four-year low earlier this week, and Friday's rally intensified after Trump announced he would select former Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to lead the central bank when Jerome Powell's term ends in May. A stronger dollar typically makes oil more expensive for non-dollar buyers, thus tending to dampen demand.
An additional note on the supply side: peak maintenance periods for major refineries in Russia this year are expected to occur this month and September, based on Reuters calculations based on industry sources' estimates. This means the market will also be monitoring the potential impact of refinery maintenance on product flows and global supply dynamics.
Source: Newsmaker.id
