Ahead of PCE Data, Gold Experiences Short-Term Pressure
Gold prices continued to show positive strength as August closed. The precious metal's movement was driven by supportive fundamental factors, as well as technical signals indicating potential for further gains.
Gold moved steadily above $3,400 per ounce, supported by a weakening US dollar and rising market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recent data indicates an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting.
Furthermore, market attention is focused on key US inflation data, namely Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). If the data shows controlled inflation, the likelihood of an interest rate cut increases. This situation clearly benefits gold because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold is lower.
On the other hand, global uncertainty and lingering inflation also strengthen gold's position as a safe-haven asset, maintaining bullish momentum in the commodity market.
Technicals: Consolidation Above $3,400, Potential for Further Bullishness
Technically, gold remains in a short- and medium-term uptrend. The price is moving steadily above the 50-day moving average (EMA50), indicating that bullish momentum is still maintained.
Nearest support is seen in the $3,310–$3,320 area. As long as this level holds, the upward trend remains valid.
Key resistance is around $3,400–$3,438. If this level is broken, gold has the potential to continue rising towards $3,460 or even $3,500.
The current movement pattern indicates consolidation, so a breakout above $3,400 would be a strong signal for a continuation of the uptrend.
Overall, the combination of fundamental and technical factors provides a positive outlook for gold today. The weakening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to support the price, while technicals suggest a potential breakout above $3,400.
If gold can hold above the $3,310 support level and break through the $3,438 resistance, the bullish trend is expected to continue with the next target in the $3,460–$3,500 area.
Source: Newsmaker.id
