US-Iran Retaliatory Attack Shakes Global Energy
Military clashes erupted again between the United States (US) and Iran after a US Apache helicopter was shot down by an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded by attacking Iranian air defenses, ground control stations, and radar. Meanwhile, Iran retaliated by firing missiles at four US targets, including air bases in Jordan and Bahrain. This incident highlighted the fragility of the two-month-old ceasefire, even though peace negotiations through third parties such as Pakistan continued.
This latest clash heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Global markets, particularly the energy sector, responded with fluctuations in oil prices. Although Brent prices fell slightly by 0.1% to US$91.37 per barrel, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to pose a risk of disruption to global oil supplies. Meanwhile, several critical facilities in Iran, including air storage tanks, were hit, adding to concerns about regional energy logistics.
A chief energy analyst, who spoke on the tensions, said this clash highlights geopolitical risk as a fundamental factor that remains dominant in global oil movements. Although the US operation was described as "proportionate," the market remained cautious due to the escalation in Lebanon and the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah. Uncertainty surrounding oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased short-term price volatility and prompted market participants to hedge their energy consumption.
From a negotiating perspective, Iran's demands regarding more than US$10 billion in frozen funds and the management of uranium stockpiles remain key obstacles. Meanwhile, Israel and the US continue to emphasize the need for an agreement to extend the temporary ceasefire. However, negotiations have been slow, and recent military incidents have increased the risk of a long-term agreement failing. This has led global investors to closely monitor developments.
Fundamentally, global oil production remains impacted by the conflict. The ongoing decline in Iranian supply, coupled with tensions in the key transit route, the Strait of Hormuz, maintains pressure on energy prices. While oil demand is starting to pick up in the summer, this creates a mismatch between supply and demand, thus maintaining the potential for price volatility. The US inventory report showed a sharp decline, adding to the short-term bullish sentiment for oil.
Looking at the current Brent price movement at US$92, the short-term trend indicates slight upward and downward movement. Given the unstable geopolitical landscape, Brent has the potential for volatility, but fundamentally, demand remains strong, and regional supply is limited. Investors are advised to monitor developments regarding the ceasefire and further military responses, as geopolitical factors will continue to be a major catalyst for Brent prices in the coming weeks. (gn)
Source: Newsmaker.id
