IAEA Warns Iran Proliferation Risks Rise, Uranium Now Beyond Verification
The risk that Iran secretly pursues nuclear weapons is considered higher now than before the US and Israel launched a first military strike against Iran in June 2025, according to Western officials citing new data from the UN atomic watchdog. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned member states of the proliferation danger posed by Iran's large stockpile of uranium at "near-bomb-grade" levels.
A restricted 119-page IAEA document circulated last month in Vienna stated that the agency was "unable to draw any conclusions" about the nuclear material. The IAEA assessed the situation as a proliferation concern because the unverified material includes large quantities of highly enriched uranium, and the longer it remains outside its control, the greater the risk of it being diverted for non-peaceful uses.
Before the June 2025 airstrike that triggered the 12-Day War, the material was subject to weekly IAEA inspections to ensure no diversion. Following the war and new restrictions imposed by Iran, inspections have reportedly dropped by more than half, and monitoring teams have not yet returned to the damaged sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. At those three sites, the IAEA last observed 440.9 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and 8,599.6 kilograms of low-enriched uranium.
The IAEA warning highlights a new dilemma emerging from the conflict: claims of damage to facilities do not automatically eliminate risks if nuclear material can no longer be verified. This is a concern for markets because the diplomatic process regarding Iran remains fragile, and nuclear uncertainty has tempered hopes for a quick geopolitical stabilization, including the smooth flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz.
The White House has declared Iran's nuclear program has been destroyed, but at the same time it has been said to be working to negotiate access to the uranium. US President Donald Trump has also raised the option of exporting the material from Iran or neutralizing it domestically under IAEA supervision, while some officials worry that the latest round of talks, which does not involve the IAEA, could create new risks and set unrealistic expectations. IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that the IAEA was not a party to the negotiations and only participated until the last round, which ended in February, stressing that unverifiable matters risked a bad deal. With a crucial IAEA board meeting scheduled for June 8 in Austria, markets will be watching for any updates on the status of material verification, inspection access to three key sites, and any indication of whether the framework agreement includes an operational oversight mechanism. (gn)
Source: Newsmaker.id
