Gold Isn't Safe Yet, Here's What Will Happen!
Today's gold price is still moving cautiously around US$4,600 per ounce, after weakening in trading on Monday (May 4). Pressure comes from inflation concerns and the still-uncertain direction of US interest rate policy.
Fundamentally, the conflict in Iran remains the main factor preventing gold from weakening too much. The US plan to help ships exit the Strait of Hormuz has calmed the market somewhat, but Iran's warnings against US interference continue to keep geopolitical risks high.
On the other hand, persistently high oil prices have heightened inflation concerns. If energy inflation continues to pressure the economy, the Fed could hold interest rates high for longer, even opening the door to a more hawkish stance. This situation is less than ideal for gold, as it offers no yield.
From a technical perspective, the US$4,600 area is a key level being tested by the market. As long as prices can stay above this area, gold still has a limited chance of a rebound. However, if this level is breached strongly, selling pressure could lead to the next support area around US$4,560 to US$4,510.
The nearest resistance is around US$4,660. If gold can break through this area, there could be a recovery opportunity towards the US$4,700 range. However, as long as there is no strong impetus from a weakening dollar or worsening geopolitical conflict, gold's gains are likely to remain limited.
For today, the bias for gold is neutral to bearish. Traders need to pay close attention to US-Iran developments, oil price movements, the direction of the US dollar, and signals from Fed officials. As long as high interest rate sentiment remains dominant, gold is not yet completely safe to continue its aggressive upward movement. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
