Oil Breaks US$109, Hormuz Raises Inflation Risk!
Oil prices surged past US$100 per barrel after the Strait of Hormuz was reported to be near closure, while several Middle Eastern producers cut production. Brent briefly rose as much as 20% to US$111.04 per barrel (the highest since July 2022) and WTI surged 22%, fueling output cuts in Kuwait and the UAE, as well as partial Iraqi production shutdowns since last week amid shipping constraints and surging inventories.
The market's base case scenario shifts to "more expensive energy for longer," which increases inflation risks and reduces room for interest rate cuts, with downward pressure on US retail gasoline prices, which reached their highest level since August 2024. The alternative scenario sees the risk premium decrease if Hormuz shipments recover and escalation subsides; however, the risk is tilted to the upside if the conflict escalates or infrastructure disruptions continue. Monitoring focus: Hormuz status, Middle East production trends, tanker flows and storage capacity, US gasoline movements, and government and central bank policy responses. (asd)
Oil price at the time of this analysis was $109.50
- Buy if price moves below $109,14
- Sell if price moves below $106,66
Resistance 2: $112.54
Resistance 1: $110,06
Support 1: $105.10
Support 2: $102.62
Disclaimer:
This article is analytical in nature and is not a definitive reference. Please consider the influence of fundamental and technical developments on trading before making any investment decisions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
