XAU/USD: Liquidity Correction Ends, Safe Haven Strengthens Again
On Tuesday, March 3, 2026, XAU/USD actually fell despite escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, as the market entered a "dash for cash" phase: demand for dollar liquidity increased sharply, while expectations of a US interest rate cut also faded amid concerns about energy inflation. Reuters recorded a 3.6% drop to US$5,137/oz, pressured by a stronger dollar and diminishing rate-cut bets.
This movement demonstrates that in geopolitical shocks that also raise energy prices, gold can "lose speed" to the dollar. When oil and gas costs (denominated in USD) rise and volatility increases, market participants often prioritize cash management by selling previously profitable assets (including gold) to meet margin requirements or reduce portfolio risk. Reuters described this phenomenon as a moment when gold "fails to perform" as a safe haven as flows instead flow to the USD.
Entering Wednesday, March 4, 2026, gold began to rebound as the dollar's rally softened and safe-haven demand resurfaced, as the conflict continued to escalate and uncertainty over its duration increased. Reuters reported that spot gold rose 0.7% to around US$5,120.71/oz, supported by a pause in the dollar's strength.
Meanwhile, today, Thursday, March 5, 2026, XAU/USD appears to be strengthening again. Macroeconomically, this is consistent with a "two-stage" pattern: after dollar liquidity was dominant during the initial risk-off phase, the market again increased gold exposure when geopolitical risks had not subsided, but intraday direction remained highly sensitive to the USD and US Treasury yields. (Cp)
Gold Price at the Time of Release of This Analysis Was at $5,173
- Buy if the price moves to $5,167
- Sell if the price moves to $5,180
Resistance 2: $5,200
Resistance 1: $5,187
Support 1: $5,165
Support 2: $5,150
Disclaimer
This article is analytical in nature and is not a definitive reference. Please consider the impact of fundamental and technical developments on trading before making any investment decisions. (Cp)
Source: Newsmaker.id
