Oil Nears 5-Month High as Tensions Flare Again in the Strait of Hormuz

Global oil prices strengthened during trading on Tuesday (October 20, 2026), approaching a five-month high amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude rose 0.8% to US$110.48 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 1.3% to US$105.02 per barrel as of 15:15 WIB (Western Indonesian Time). This surge was driven by market concerns regarding fresh attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, as well as threats from the Houthi group against Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure.

Tensions intensified further after Iran’s First Vice President asserted that his country has no choice but to defend its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. This statement has once again rattled energy markets, given that this strategic waterway serves as a vital gateway for global oil distribution. Previously, oil prices had softened following reports of potential progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran; however, hopes for a de-escalation were short-lived as the threat of disruptions to oil shipments resurfaced.

Against this backdrop, the recovery of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf region now faces serious risks. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright had previously noted that crude oil flows from the Gulf region had recovered to approximately 80% of pre-war levels, though shipments of refined products remain limited. Nevertheless, the rise in attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz threatens to stall this recovery. The Houthi group has also reportedly claimed responsibility for attacks on several strategic facilities in Saudi Arabia—including energy infrastructure—heightening concerns regarding the security of oil production and distribution in the region.

Market participants are now closely monitoring developments in the conflict involving Iran, the activities of the Houthi group, and the continued flow of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. If attacks on vessels and energy facilities continue to escalate, the price of Brent crude has the potential to maintain its upward momentum and even test higher levels. Conversely, diplomatic progress and the normalization of oil shipping routes could alleviate supply pressures and cap price increases. This situation leaves the global energy market in a state of uncertainty, with geopolitical risks serving as the primary driver of oil price trends in the short term.

Conclusion

Global oil prices retain a bullish bias due to heightened risks of supply disruptions from the Middle East. As long as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal and the threat of Houthi attacks persists, Brent crude could potentially test the US$112–115 per barrel range. Nevertheless, the possibility of a diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran remains a factor that could trigger a price correction.

A prolonged rise in oil prices could also exacerbate global inflationary pressures, including for oil-importing nations such as Indonesia.

Source: Newsmaker.id